MEMORANDUM

March 26^th, 2004

TO: All Interested Parties

FROM: Harrison Hickman

RE: Inez Tenenbaum for US Senate
 

Inez Tenenbaum is the candidate to beat in the race to fill the seat of retiring Senator Fritz Hollings. She is better known and liked than any of her potential Republican opponents. And in head-to-head match-ups against the three major potential Republican candidates—David Beasley, Charlie Condon, and Jim DeMint—Tenenbaum holds leads over all three, outside of the margin of error.
 

Personal Popularity

The electorate in South Carolina is quite familiar with State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, and that familiarity translates into a very favorable opinion of her. Tenenbaum’s current name recognition is 82%, and her favorable rating is nearly double that of her unfavorable rating. More importantly, she is as well known—and better liked---than her Republican opponents, even better liked than former Governor Beasley.

Tenenbaum’s net favorable rating among key constituency groups is even more impressive. Tenenbaum has a net favorable of +64 among Democrats, +45 among blacks, and +9 among white voters. In addition, Tenenbaum has a net favorable of +28 among voters in Columbia, a +17 in Florence, a +16 in Greenville, and a +19 among Independent voters.

Current Vote Performance

Inez Tenenbaum currently leads all three possible (major) Republican candidates, Charlie Condon, Jim DeMint, and David Beasley. Tenenbaum beats DeMint by 15 points, Condon by seven points, and Beasley by five points.

Tenenbaum receives a very strong 80% or better of Democrats, and leads all three potential opponents among Independents, the area where the race will be won or lost. Among this key group, Tenenbaum leads DeMint 47%-21%, Condon 42%-36%, and Beasley 43%-37%. All three Republicans do very well among the GOP base, receiving at least 70% of the vote (Beasley and Condon both get 80%, and DeMint, were he known better, would also; he currently garners 71% of the GOP vote).
 

Though it is clear the race dynamics will shift once the Republican opponent has been finally determined, it is clear from the data that Inez Tenenbaum is in a strong position to compete for and win this U.S. Senate seat. Nearly half of the undecided vote is either Democrat or Independent, and Inez Tenenbaum’s record of reaching out to voters regardless of ideology or party preference places her in a solid position heading into this election campaign. What is also clear is that in a competitive race in a Southern state—and likely one of the few at that—the Republican Party will pull no punches to move this seat into their win column. Tenenbaum will need all of the money and resources she can muster, but we are confident that, at least in South Carolina, this Democrat can emerge victorious on Election Day.
 

TECHNICAL NOTE: This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of a randomly selected sample of 700 registered voters in the state of South Carolina who say they definitely or probably will vote in the November general election. Interviewing was conducted March 14^th through March 18^th, 2004. The sample for the survey was selected in a manner to insure that every household in the state of South Carolina with a working telephone was equally likely to be included in the sample. Special care was taken to insure that the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented in the sample. The estimation error associated with a sample of 700 is 3.9 percent at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within 3.7 points, plus or minus, of the results that would have been obtained if all probable voters in the state of South Carolina had been interviewed.